Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, recently shared insights into his Bitcoin price prediction strategy based on upcoming global macro events.
In an elaborate disclosure on Medium today, Hayes advised market participants to exercise caution despite his bullish stance on the crypto market’s long-term prospects. Recall that the market veteran asserted last October that the upcoming bull market will be the biggest in history.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Potential Correction
Nonetheless, Hayes believes the market could collapse three months into the new year, predicting a substantial correction of 20% to 30% for Bitcoin by early March, with the possibility of an even more severe downturn if the SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETFs and they begin trading before March.
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He believes ETFs could trigger a significant fiat influx into the market, potentially propelling Bitcoin to surpass $60,000. Such a price appreciation would bring the premier crypto close to its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
According to Hayes, after this uptrend, a 30% to 40% correction due to a rug pull in dollar liquidity could ensue. As a result of this projected price collapse, Hayes notes that he would refrain from buying Bitcoin until after the slew of prices for upcoming global macro events.
Upcoming Global Macro Events
In addition to the ETF development, Hayes also points out several upcoming macro events that investors should watch out for. He contends that these events could further impact the crypto market in March, depending on how things turn out.
RRP Balance Decline and BTFP Renewal
The market veteran called attention to the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balance. This balance reflects the money entering into the financial system, and a decline suggests potential challenges in maintaining the current liquidity.